Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election hit a new high on the PredictIt betting market during the first hour of the presidential debate. The debate, which started at 9 p.m. EST, saw Trump’s chances soar by over 10% by 10 p.m., reaching 63%.
PredictIt, a large online political prediction market often referred to as a “stock market for politics,” showed a significant shift in favor of Trump. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s odds of winning a second term plummeted from 48% to 37%. This dramatic change highlights the debate’s impact on market sentiment.
The Kobeissi Letter, an influential newsletter on global capital markets, reported on the surge in Trump’s odds during the debate. The newsletter’s update emphasized the market’s belief that Trump is now the frontrunner for the presidency.
PredictIt operates under regulatory constraints, limiting individual bets to $850 to avoid issues with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Despite this, the platform allows users to place multiple bets on similar questions, effectively increasing the stakes.
John Phillips, co-founder of PredictIt, attributes the platform’s accuracy to its user base, which includes many individuals with insider knowledge of political campaigns. This expertise helps ensure that the market reflects well-informed predictions.
The debate’s impact on betting odds is a testament to its significance in shaping public perception. Trump’s strong performance appears to have bolstered confidence among bettors, while Biden’s struggles during the debate led to a decrease in his perceived chances of reelection.
As the election draws nearer, PredictIt will continue to provide insights into the evolving dynamics of the race. The rapid change in odds during the debate underscores the importance of these events in influencing voter and market sentiment alike.
