Kamala Harris is facing an uphill battle in the polls as she trails behind the numbers Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton posted during their respective campaigns against President Donald Trump. According to Real Clear Polling (RCP) data as of August 31, 2024, Harris is leading Trump by only 1.8 points nationally, a much smaller margin than Biden’s 6.3-point lead in 2020 and Clinton’s 4.6-point lead in 2016.
This slim advantage is concerning for Democrats, especially given Trump’s history of outperforming poll predictions. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump managed to close the gap in key swing states, securing an Electoral College victory in 2016 and coming within striking distance in 2020. Harris’s current position leaves little room for error as the campaign moves into the final stretch.
The Electoral College projection adds to the uncertainty, with Harris holding a fragile two-vote lead over Trump. This narrow margin underscores the potential for another close race, particularly in pivotal swing states where every vote counts.
Harris’s campaign has also been criticized for its lack of visibility. So far, she has participated in just one major interview as the Democratic nominee, where she attempted to defend her shifting positions on several key issues. Her record as the most left-leaning Senator, as ranked by GovTrack in 2019, continues to be a focal point for her critics, which may be contributing to her weaker polling numbers.
As the debates with Trump approach, Harris will need to strengthen her standing in the polls and demonstrate that she can close the gap in key battleground states if she hopes to secure a victory in November.
