Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform backed by Peter Thiel, has made headlines after accurately predicting President-elect Donald Trump’s landslide victory, a success that stands in contrast to many traditional polling methods. Polymarket, along with similar platforms like Kalshi, allowed individuals to wager on various election outcomes in real-time, forming a market-based prediction that ultimately outperformed standard polls.
Prediction markets have been touted as more accurate than traditional polls, given their reliance on real-time, economically motivated wagers. “People tend to say what they want, but in these markets, they will bet the way they think the outcome will occur,” noted Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers. This sentiment was echoed by Polymarket itself, which celebrated its forecasting success, stating that it had “consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead” of major media and pollsters.
The French regulator had been eyeing Polymarket — the crypto betting platform which showed Trump being favored to win the presidency — since before its recent surge in popularityhttps://t.co/Vw0R8pzJ14
— Victor Goury-Laffont (@Victorglaf) November 7, 2024
One of the platform’s most notable stories involved a French trader who won an estimated $85 million by betting on Trump using multiple accounts. This massive win, however, appears to have caught the attention of French regulators. Following the election, the French National Gaming Authority launched an investigation into Polymarket, noting that the platform is not authorized to operate in France.
REPORT: The French Polymarket trader is set to rake in $48 million in profits and outsmarted nearly every mainstream media pollster in the process.
So how exactly did he outsmart the media pollsters?
According to the Polymarket trader who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, he… pic.twitter.com/kqZyEF78ZG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024
Polymarket’s CEO Shane Coplan recently defended the platform’s predictive accuracy and structure. Speaking on CNBC, Coplan explained that Polymarket’s odds are influenced by real-time trades, with positions on both sides of the market. When questioned on the possibility of market manipulation, he argued that any price shifts are natural outcomes of market function, emphasizing that Polymarket offered the tightest spreads in prediction markets globally.
🇫🇷 JUST IN: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, faces a ban in France after a French trader won $19 million on a bet, prompting regulators to deem it illegal gambling. pic.twitter.com/LHnaEC1PLb
— ChainChampion (@Chain_champ1) November 7, 2024
Despite this success, French regulators are now considering a full ban on Polymarket. According to Politico, the platform had been on regulators’ radar even before the U.S. election. The French National Gaming Authority confirmed it was examining Polymarket’s operations for compliance with French laws, a move that could see the platform prohibited in France.
As for traditional polling, the contrast was stark. Major pollsters had projected a tight race, with some predicting a Harris win in swing states like Iowa—predictions that missed the mark by a wide margin. Polymarket’s accuracy has sparked debate over the future of prediction markets in political forecasting and raised questions about the regulatory challenges they may face, particularly in Europe.
