As Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling numbers continue to rise, Swiss political scientist Dr. Louis Perron is questioning the accuracy of these results, citing the potential for voter reluctance to openly support President Donald Trump. Perron, a recognized expert in electoral behavior, believes that the social dynamics surrounding the 2024 race could be causing some respondents to hide their true voting intentions.
“There is currently quite a media hype about Kamala in the mainstream media, so some voters might not want to admit that they won’t vote for her,” Perron observed. He pointed out that in past elections, the “shy voter” phenomenon has led to polling errors, particularly when conservative candidates are involved. Supporters of such candidates often fear social judgment and may be less likely to share their honest opinions with pollsters.
Perron also emphasized that national polling generally favors Democrats due to the influence of states like California and New York, where Democratic candidates receive outsized support that skews the overall numbers. This built-in advantage, coupled with possible voter dishonesty, suggests that Harris’ lead might not be as strong as it appears.
The analyst compared the current situation to the polling inaccuracies seen during Trump’s previous campaigns, where hidden support only became evident on Election Day. Perron’s insights serve as a reminder that polling data is often influenced by factors beyond simple voter preference, including social pressures and the reluctance of some respondents to fully disclose their views.
As Election Day approaches, Perron’s analysis suggests that Harris’ polling surge should be taken with a grain of salt, as the real dynamics of the race might only reveal themselves in the final tally.
