According to Emerson College Polling (ECP), former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by three points in North Carolina with the 2024 general election less than a year away.
“A majority of voters under 30 break for President Biden over Trump, 53% to 35%, along with a plurality of voters in their 30s, 47% to 40%. Voters in their 40s are evenly split: 45% support each candidate. Voters over 50 support Trump over Biden, 52% to 40%,” said executive director of ECP Spencer Kimball.
One of the key factors needed to win an election like this one is the support of independent voters. According to ECP, “Independent voters in North Carolina break for Trump over Biden, 43% to 40%.”
The polling numbers above are representative of a hypothetical contest between the frontrunners of the major party. Those numbers change considerably when potential third-party candidates are added into the mix.
“With third-party candidates added to the ballot test, Trump leads 46% to 37%, while 5% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Eleven percent are undecided,” states ECP.
📊 NORTH CAROLINA GE: Emerson
🟥 Trump 47% (+3)
🟦 Biden 44%🟥 Trump 46% (+9)
🟦 Biden 37%
🟨 RFK Jr. 5%
Other 2%
—
🟥Trump 50% (+9)
🟦 Harris 41%
.
🟥 Trump 49% (+15)
🟦 Newsom 34%
—
538: #8 (2.9/3.0) | 2/14-16 | 1,000 RVhttps://t.co/3y8AMyUxHG pic.twitter.com/NbZsjdzqhF— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 21, 2024
North Carolina will be a key state in the 2024 general election. In 2016, Trump won the Tar Heel state by a little less than four points, but 2020 was much closer. Biden lost North Carolina by a little more than one point, and a win for any Democrat could be disastrous for Republicans.
The ECP survey also showed Trump leading Biden in Georgia by an even larger margin. In a head-to-head election, the survey showed Trump leading 48% to 42% with 11% undecided. When third parties are included in Georgia, Trump’s lead grows to 46% to 37% over Biden.
📊 GEORGIA POLL: @EmersonPolling
🟥 Trump 48% (+6)
🟦 Biden 42%
.
🟥Trump 51% (+10)
🟦 Harris 41%
.
🟥 Trump 51% (+19)
🟦 Newsom 32%
—
Job Approval
Gov. Kemp: 52-29 (+23)
Pres. Biden: 39-50 (-11)
—
538: #8 (2.9/3.0) | 2/14-16 | 1,000 RV https://t.co/reXCVwHeKk pic.twitter.com/n4g9sJc8Jo— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 21, 2024
The economy is the top issue for North Carolina survey participants with 36% of people saying it is their highest voting priority. The only other three issues that reach double digits are healthcare, education, and immigration.
Voters in North Carolina were also asked about Biden’s age with 52% of voters saying Biden’s age raises doubts and 42% saying it does not.
