Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to forgo attending President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with analysts pointing to diplomatic risks and rising tensions between the two nations. Trump extended the invitation, but experts argue the gesture is unlikely to alter Beijing’s stance.
Danny Russel, a former U.S. diplomat, called Xi’s attendance improbable. “He would not risk being reduced to the status of a mere guest celebrating a foreign leader’s triumph,” Russel said, referencing the optics of Xi appearing alongside Trump’s outspoken China critics.
Yun Sun of the Stimson Center highlighted logistical and political factors, emphasizing that there is no precedent for a Chinese leader attending a U.S. presidential inauguration. “Beijing plays it safe in these scenarios,” she explained.
Trump’s second term is expected to intensify U.S.-China rivalry. His administration has already announced key appointments, including China hawks Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz as national security adviser. Beijing has expressed readiness to retaliate against unfriendly U.S. moves, including potential tariffs as high as 60%.
Taiwan’s attendance at Biden’s 2021 inauguration remains a sore point for China, further complicating any decision for Xi to attend Trump’s ceremony. Analysts believe Beijing is unlikely to risk further embarrassment by sending its leader to Washington under such circumstances.
Experts anticipate a Trump-Xi meeting early in Trump’s presidency, with both sides looking to establish their positions in what is expected to be an increasingly contentious relationship.
